Here’s how much Trump’s campaign has been hurt by the pandemic

Our mission to help you navigate the new normal is fueled by subscribers. To enjoy unlimited access to our journalism, subscribe today.

Even before President Trump was diagnosed with COVID-19, his reelection prospects had been grievously harmed by the pandemic. Two recently released reports suggest that the pandemic’s damage to his campaign may have been even worse than it appeared.

In the counterfactual world of no pandemic, at least four election prediction models based partially or entirely on economic factors suggest Trump could have been a formidable candidate, using economic data available early this year. The new reports add data not previously available that would be exceptionally favorable to an incumbent running for reelection. Without the pandemic overwhelming all other factors, the new data would have enabled Trump to appeal to a wide spectrum of voters and to strengthen his case in the campaign’s closing weeks.

Specifically, the … Read More

Watch Now: Here’s What Will Move Markets This Week

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters
Read More