David Rosenberg: There’s only a 20% chance stocks have hit bottom — if the past 10 recession bear markets are any guide

What I love about our business is the eternal optimism. There will be growth in the spring, as Chauncey Gardiner would say. Google “Picking a Market Bottom” and you get 309 million results. Oh, but google “Picking a Market Peak” and all you get is 138 million.

In any event, if picking bottoms is your thing, I have news for you: In the markets, as in life, the higher you are, the harder the fall. It’s also never about historical per cent changes cycle by cycle, but the reversal from the prior market condition.

In this case, establishing a range of scenarios is most helpful and involves assessing how much of the previous bull market is unwound in the next bear phase. We looked at prior recession-era bear markets back to the Great Depression. On average, 83 per cent of the prior bull market is reversed in the bear market

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How the coronavirus crisis is affecting food supply By Reuters

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view shows ears of wheat in a field near Krasnoyarsk

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The coronavirus pandemic has disrupted global food supplies and is causing labour shortages in agriculture worldwide.


Panic buying by shoppers cleared supermarket shelves of staples such as pasta and flour as populations worldwide prepared for lockdowns.

Meat and dairy producers as well as fruit and vegetable farmers struggled to shift supplies from restaurants to grocery stores, creating the perception of shortages for consumers.

Retailers and authorities say there are no underlying shortages and supplies of most products have been or will be replenished. Bakery and pasta firms in Europe and North America have increased production.

Food firms say panic purchasing is subsiding as households have stocked up and are adjusting to lockdown routines.

The logistics to get food from the field to the plate, however, are being

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When are stimulus checks coming? It could take a while for some Americans

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Some people counting on $1,200 stimulus checks from the government may not see the money until mid-September, according to a House Ways and Means Committee analysis.

The Internal Revenue Service will begin making about 60 million direct deposit payments in mid-April to the people who have bank account information on file with the agency, according to the analysis sent to lawmakers on Wednesday.

Those payments will take about three weeks to process. The IRS then will begin putting paper checks in the mail in early May.

The IRS will send approximately 100 million checks at a rate of 5 million per week, which could take 20 weeks, according to the committee’s document, meaning the final round of payments may not go out until September. The checks … Read More