David Rosenberg: There’s only a 20% chance stocks have hit bottom — if the past 10 recession bear markets are any guide
What I love about our business is the eternal optimism. There will be growth in the spring, as Chauncey Gardiner would say. Google “Picking a Market Bottom” and you get 309 million results. Oh, but google “Picking a Market Peak” and all you get is 138 million.
In any event, if picking bottoms is your thing, I have news for you: In the markets, as in life, the higher you are, the harder the fall. It’s also never about historical per cent changes cycle by cycle, but the reversal from the prior market condition.
In this case, establishing a range of scenarios is most helpful and involves assessing how much of the previous bull market is unwound in the next bear phase. We looked at prior recession-era bear markets back to the Great Depression. On average, 83 per cent of the prior bull market is reversed in the bear market