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Even before President Trump was diagnosed with COVID-19, his reelection prospects had been grievously harmed by the pandemic. Two recently released reports suggest that the pandemic’s damage to his campaign may have been even worse than it appeared.
In the counterfactual world of no pandemic, at least four election prediction models based partially or entirely on economic factors suggest Trump could have been a formidable candidate, using economic data available early this year. The new reports add data not previously available that would be exceptionally favorable to an incumbent running for reelection. Without the pandemic overwhelming all other factors, the new data would have enabled Trump to appeal to a wide spectrum of voters and to strengthen his case in the campaign’s closing weeks.
Specifically, the … Read More